China To Overtake US In Science In Two Years

“China is set to overtake America in scientific output as soon as 2013 — far earlier than expected. Chinese research spending has grown by 20% per year since 1999, now reaching over $100bn, and as many as 1.5 million science and engineering students graduated from Chinese universities in 2006. ‘I think this is positive, of great benefit, though some might see it as a threat and it does serve as a wake-up call for us not to become complacent,’ said Professor Sir Chris Llewellyn Smith. However, the report points out that a growing volume of research publications does not necessarily mean an increase in quality.”

China’s Miracle Demystified – As a late-comer to this modernization process in 1949, China had the advantage of backwardness. To innovate, China did not have to invent the technology or industry by doing R&D. It could borrow technology, industries and institutions from the advanced countries with low risk and costs. East Asian economies, including Japan and the four small dragons as well as China after the transition in 1979, all tapped into this advantage.

—World Bank

China’s miracle raises the following five questions.

1. What was behind China’s extraordinary performance?
2. Why Did China Fail before the Transition in 1979?
3. Why Didn’t Other Transition Economies Perform Equally Well?
4. What Costs Did China Pay for Its Success?
5. Can Other Developing Countries Replicate the Miracle?

Image credit smbc