Russia updates plans … World Could Have 1,400 Reactors By 2050

June 7, 2010

Russia updates generation plans to 2030 -To meet demand, Russia is planning to introduce 173 GWe of new generating capacity, including 43.4 GWe of nuclear by 2030. In 2009, the country’s nuclear reactors generated some 152.8 terawatt-hours (TWh), accounting for almost 18% of Russia’s total electricity production.

And Growth of nuclear energy drives need for better communications skills
However, in Europe where the new nuclear build is taking place despite a strong “green” movement with years of anti-nuclear activism under its belt, the need for better communication is becoming more real due to the rapid pace at which plans for new reactors are taking shape.

World Could Have 1,400 Reactors By 2050…although whether this figure is realized will depend partly on the performance of the nuclear industry itself.

Luis EchávarriLuis Echávarri, director-general of the Paris-based Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) – “the industry has tremendous opportunities, but also tremendous challenges to do things well”.

In a keynote speech May 31 he said the NEA foresees a minimum of 600 reactor units in commercial operation by 2050, but 1,400 is “a realistic upper limit”.

He pointed out that in the 1970s and 1980s around 25 units were being built a year, so raising that number to around 55 is within reach.

Other factors that will influence the number of reactors that are built include electricity demand, the cost of oil and gas and the price of CO2.

The three main drivers between what is “a promising future” for nuclear are security of supply, economics and environmental protection, Mr Echávarri said.

Please read more at Idaho Samizdat: Nuke Notes

NOTE: a 1000 MW nuke plant needs one 40 foot shipping container of fission material a year to stay in business, replacing two 500MW coal plants in the process.

A 500 MW coal plant produces :
* 3.7 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2), an amount equivalent to chopping down 161 million trees.
* 10,000 tons of sulfur dioxide (SO2), which causes acid rain and forms small airborne particles that can cause lung damage, heart disease, and other illnesses.
* 10,200 tons of nitrogen oxides (NOx), equivalent to half a million late-model cars. NOx leads to formation of smog, which inflames lung tissue and increases susceptibility to respiratory illness.
* 500 tons of small airborne particles, which can cause bronchitis, reductions in lung function, increased hospital and emergency room admissions, and premature death.[28]
* 220 tons of hydrocarbons, which contribute to smog formation.
* 720 tons of carbon monoxide (CO), which causes headaches and places additional stress on people with heart disease.
* 170 pounds of mercury. 1/70th of a teaspoon of mercury deposited in a 25-acre lake can make the fish unsafe to eat. Mercury also causes learning disabilities, brain damage, and neurological disorders.[29]
* 225 pounds of arsenic, which leads to cancer in 1 out of 100 people who drink water containing 50 parts per billion.
* 114 pounds of lead, 4 pounds of cadmium, and other toxic heavy metals. These toxic metals can accumulate in human and animal tissue and cause serious health problems, including mental retardation, developmental disorders, and damage to the nervous system.[30]

Solid waste from a typical 500MW coal plant contains 120,000 tons of ash and 193,000 tons of coal sludge from the smokestack scrubber. In the U.S. more than 75 percent of this waste is disposed of in unlined, unmonitored landfills and surface impoundments, and can leach into and contaminate drinking water.
# There are now some 436 commercial nuclear power reactors operating in 30 countries, with 372,000 MWe of total capacity.
# They provide about 15% of the world’s electricity as continuous, reliable base-load power, and their efficiency is increasing.

EROEI (energy returned on energy invested) or EROI (energy return on investment), is the ratio of the amount of usable energy acquired from a particular energy resource to the amount of energy expended to obtain that energy resource.

EROEI Nuclear LWR = 180 to 11; Wind = ~30, Solar Thermal = ~11, Solar PV = ~6
With the EROEI to hand, energy payback time is a straightforward calculation.
For example, if your technology’s EROEI is 15 and the power plant’s lifespan is 35 years, then the energy payback time can be approximated as 35/15 = 2.3 years or 28 months.
Energy payback time :
Nuclear LWR = 40 years / EROEI 100 = 0.4 years payback time
Wind = 20 / 30 = 0.7 years
Solar Thermal = 20 / 11 = 1.8 years
Solar PV = 25 / 6 = 4 years

For example, when oil was originally discovered, it took on average one barrel of oil to find, extract, and process about 100 barrels of oil. That ratio has declined steadily over the last century to about three barrels gained for one barrel used up in the U.S. (and about ten for one in Saudi Arabia).
Currently (2006) the EROEI of wind energy in North America and Europe is about 20:1[2] which has driven its adoption.
EROEI under rapid growth : energy cannibalism refers to an effect where rapid growth of an entire energy producing or energy efficiency industry creates a need for energy that uses (or cannibalizes) the energy of existing power plants or production plants. The solar breeder overcomes some of these problems. A solar breeder is a photovoltaic panel manufacturing plant which can be made energy-independent by using energy derived from its own roof using its own panels. Such a plant becomes not only energy self-sufficient but a major supplier of new energy, hence the name solar breeder. Research on the concept was conducted by Centre for Photovoltaic Engineering, University of New South Wales, Australia. The reported investigation establishes certain mathematical relationships for the solar breeder which clearly indicate that a vast amount of net energy is available from such a plant for the indefinite future.

SolarWorld is investing € 350 million in the new production facility and brings internal solar cells production to 750MW by the end of the year. To remain competitive with low-cost regions in Asia, SolarWorld has automated the entire manufacturing process as well as built facility systems that use less energy and water to reduce costs. An example of cost reductions is the use of waste heat from the crystallization process to heat the entire building, according to the company. The facility also includes approximately 1MW of solar modules on the rooftop.
Mr Röttgen said, “The constantly progressing climate change is forcing us to make our energy supply more and more carbon free. My idea is that by 2050 the renewable energies will cover our energy needs almost completely. A new market is emerging, in Germany and worldwide.”   …read more

Sounds pretty good?
Well…geothermal, wind, solar, P2 and waste to gas… would cut nuclear impact 1000 fold.

Not advocating anything other than good ideas 😉

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