PeakChina – The Three Chinas

Watts Up With That–  The choices we make about energy, the environment and climate will be limited by The Three Chinas.

1. The Real China – One of the Chinas is very real and familiar. It has a population of 1.4 billion.

   China is developing quickly, trying to do in 50 years what America did in 100. As a result, they have doubled their energy use since 2000, becoming the largest energy user in the world.

   China’s energy use may well double again by 2020. (The figures in the report did not match reality, but their estimate of 7.5% annual growth looks fairly okay).

   Coal currently provides 70% of China’s energy. That may drop to 65% by 2020. It may not.

   If China doubles its energy use (to 200 quads) and 65% of it comes from coal, that will be 130 quadrillion BTUs generated from burning coal, in China, in 2020.

    China’s coal plants are much dirtier than those used in the developed world.

2. The Second China – This very real China will be replicated by the natural growth of the human population to 8.5 billion by 2035, and 9.1 billion at its peak later this century. That’s more than the entire population of China. As many of them will actually be born in China, and many more will form part of our third ‘imaginary’ China, it is appropriate to limit the Second China to the size of the real one.
3. The Third China – While China is developing quickly, so is the rest of the developing world. As countries develop, the people living in them get richer. They buy cars, appliances, computers, and begin to use more energy.